Almost Timely News: 🗞️ The Future of Work in an AI World (2025-01-19)
A world with 30% fewer jobs?
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What's On My Mind: The Future of Work in an AI World
This week, let's talk a bit about the future, inspired by several things. First, my friend and colleague Constantine von Hoffman asked what I thought the next 6-12 months look like for AI.
Spoiler: no idea. But we'll come back to this question in a bit.
Second, the World Economic Forum released a whopper of a paper about the future of jobs and work. There are quite a few sobering bits in there.
Third, this week I started using aider and cline in my software development work, and am properly blown away by both and what they enable.
So, let's talk about the future.
Caveat lector: the future, by definition, is not set. With the world as unpredictable as it is, by the time I press send on this newsletter, it could very well all be wrong.
Part 1: The Future of Work
We'll start with the World Economic Forum report. Screenshots and tidbits of it have been floating around on LinkedIn, but let's dig really into the meat of it. With documents like this, I strongly suggest loading it into a tool like NotebookLM and then asking questions of it. You'll get credible answers drawn from the document itself.
Here are a few of the specifics:
"Technology is predicted to be the most divergent driver of labour-market change, with broadening digital access expected to both create and displace more jobs than any other macrotrend (19 million and 9 million, respectively). Meanwhile, trends in AI and information processing technology are expected to create 11 million jobs, while simultaneously displacing 9 million others, more than any other technology trend. Robotics and autonomous systems are expected to be the largest net job displacer, with a net decline of 5 million jobs."
Also from the report:
Today, 47% of tasks are human only
30% are human/machine hybrid
22% are machine only
By 2030, according to their survey:
33% of tasks will be human only, a 29.8% decline
33% will be human/machine hybrid, a 10% increase
34% will be machine only, a 54% increase
And who's exposed to the greatest risks, in terms of machine substitution by generative AI?
Skills involving reading, writing, and mathematics
Marketing and media
Systems thinking
Multilingualism
Programming
(plus AI itself, as agentic AI consumes more of AI overall)
That wasn't the only paper that caught my eye over the last couple of weeks. The National University of Singapore published a study on how AI is impacting the freelance market.
The short version of that paper is that when AI isn't fluent and skilled in a domain, freelancers using AI see big boosts in earnings, up to 65%. Once AI becomes fluent and skillful in a domain - like language translation - freelancer earnings fall by 30%.
Back to the WEF report, one of the whoppers in it was this:
"On average, workers can expect that two-fifths (39%) of their existing skill sets will be transformed or become outdated over the 2025-2030 period. Extrapolating from the predictions shared by Future of Jobs Survey respondents, on current trends over the 2025 to 2030 period job creation and destruction due to structural labour-market transformation will amount to 22% of today’s total jobs."
Now, let's talk about this a bit. I'm decidedly pessimistic about the report's conclusion that we'll see a 7% net increase in jobs. Why? Because in a free market civilization where net profit is the tangible, measurable goal of most corporations and for-profit entities, the goal is to increase profits while reducing costs.
I do think the estimates for how much work AI will consume ring true; both NUS and the WEF report estimate that AI will consume about 30% of work, which makes sense. But I don't think labor numbers are right, for one simple reason: tasks are unevenly distributed.
Let's take the average marketing agency. Companies are inherently pyramid shaped for the most part. There's very few people at the top, and a whole lot of people at the bottom. At the bottom you have roles like analyst, coordinator, specialist, and other related titles, the junior staff. These folks do the grunt work for the most part.
Preparing and scheduling meetings, assembling reports, taking notes, collecting data, writing first drafts of marketing documents...
You can tell by just that short list of very common tasks that those are all tasks today's AI tools can do fluently. Meeting note-taking is so automated now that entire companies will deliver AI summaries, to do lists, takeaways, and transcripts of pretty much any meeting audio. Google just rolled this out natively in Google Workspace.
What happens when the bottom level of the pyramid can be done by machine? The next level up - the account managers, account supervisors, account executives become the operators of the machines that are handling the lowest level tasks. And over time, as AI becomes more fluent in more tasks, the number of people you need at each level diminishes.
We used to say, "AI won't take your job. Someone skilled with AI will." That's somewhat true, but not entirely. There are plenty of jobs, especially at the lowest levels of an organization, where all the tasks that comprise that job can be consumed by AI.
But you might say, "Chris, someone still has to operate AI! We can't get rid of everyone." No, we can't. That's impractical, and as a number of companies found out recently, firing everyone and hoping AI can do everything is not a winning strategy.
Not recently, anyway.
But that's going to be less and less true over time. Which brings me to part 2.
Part 2: The Future of Tasks
I've been creating software with generative AI for well over a year now, ever since GPT-4 conclusively proved it could write at least moderately fluent code. Most of the time, it would write code that was 90% of the way there, but as software developers know, code that is 90% working is code that is 0% working, because code has to be syntactically correct to run. Computer languages are unforgiving; misplace a semi-colon and your entire app might not run.
But that was then. Over the past week, I've been playing around with two different AI coders - aider and cline. Both are free and open source, though both require you to provide them access to an AI model of some kind, like Claude, GPT-4o, Deepseek V3, Gemini, Qwen Coder, and other models. I've been using Deepseek V3 because it's comparable to other state of the art models at ridiculously low cost.
When you use a tool like cline or aider, you don't write the code. You give instructions, prompts, and it writes the code. But it does so within an environment where... it just runs. It's an example of what the future of AI looks like, tools that run semi-autonomously or even autonomously.
I have a short 1-minute video that's a time lapse of Cline and Deepseek building an MVP - minimum viable product - inside VSCodium, a coding tool. As you watch it, you see it writing, then editing, then proofreading its code with me only occasionally pushing buttons or giving clarifying instructions.
Tools like Replit do this entirely autonomously now. No human needs to babysit them. You give them the instructions, and they figure it out. It may take a bunch of tries, but it gets there eventually.
How eventually, and how much does it cost? The setup I was using cost me 25 minutes of babysitting time and a whopping 6 cents of compute costs using Deepseek V3.
Now give that some thought. A high value task like building an app - granted, a very simple one - would in the past have taken hours, perhaps days, of a developer's time at $100 an hour minimum for on-shore developers. Offshore developers cost less, but still cost a good amount of money.
AI accomplished the same task in less time than a lunch break and for less than the tip you'd pay on a soft drink order at a restaurant.
When you watch it code and debug, you're struck with just how capable these tools are. I provided the idea. I provided the requirements. I provided clarifying answers to questions it had.
That's it. It provided the skills.
There's a reason hiring demand for software developers has been near pandemic-level lows for the last year with no sign of recovery, at least according to data from Indeed.com. The job of a software developer isn't putting fingers on keyboards much any more. The job is now ideating and providing high level guidance - being the expert during pair programming, while AI is the junior programmer.
Can you imagine that same kind of work being done by AI in, say, a corporate strategy document? Going back and forth, making edits and refinements, asking clarifying questions, but doing all the labor itself?
This is why I'm pessimistic about the World Economic Forum's report in terms of jobs created. I think they're wildly overstating the number of jobs AI will create. Yes, we will need more expert engineers to solve very difficult problems, but the pathways to becoming one of those expert engineers will be smaller and narrower as AI does more.
It's also worth reminding that I am not a software developer by training or trade. It's not a core skill set of mine. I'm a technical person, yes, but not a hardcore developer. So what you see in the demo is a person with an idea and good vocabulary to know what to ask for, but not a coder, doing the job of a junior coder.
In certain circumstances, AI absolutely will take your job. And the list and scope of those circumstances is going to increase over time. Today, for the average user, there is no need to use a human translator to translate one language to another. Generative AI is so fluent and capable at it that it will get the job done for anything that isn't critical. (critical meaning a faux pas would start a war or something) That profession is experiencing less demand and will need fewer people.
Software development as a profession is going to change radically. Marketing is going to change radically.
How soon?
That brings me to part 3.
Part 3: The Future Is Already Here
Constantine von Hoffman's question about what the next 6-12 months holds for AI is, frankly, a giant question mark. There's no way to know. We do know that huge models like Llama 4 are roughly midway through their training now, and probably will be released in the coming months. We know OpenAI is beginning testing on o3, their advanced reasoning model.
We know, thanks to agentic frameworks and reasoning models that prompt engineering is changing radically. The gap between someone incompetent with AI - "write me a blog post about marketing!" and highly skilled at AI is closing, fast, thanks in part due to reasoning models that automatically try to infer what your intentions are.
And we know there are significant architecture changes on the horizon as all the infrastructure around AI models changes and matures, from Google's proposed Titan architecture to agentic RAG (document and knowledge retrieval, handled by AI autonomously).
The most mind-blowing technical capabilities of generative AI exist today, right now. They have, by and large, not been put to use yet. That's what the next 6-12 months really holds - taking the capabilties we have today, and turning them into practical use cases.
Here's an example. We talked in December of 2024 about Google's realtime Gemini API that can see and hear, and provide running commentary about what it sees and hears. At the time, that seemed pretty cool. I did a demo of it to show a simple use case.
A not so simple use case? Imagine adding a world-class trial lawyer to your bench when it's your day in court. Your human lawyer is sitting with you there, and Gemini is listening, watching, and providing realtime feedback to your lawyer about what it's seeing, what it's thinking, and with Gemini's grounding in search, even providing suggested strategies and tactics.
Imagine that same capability at your next quarterly board meeting. You sit at the table with the rest of the C-Suite as everyone delivers their updates and plans for the year. Gemini, primed and loaded with the world's best corporate strategy knowledge, acts like a consultant. It listens to everything and provides you real-time feedback like suggestions, approaches, and cautions.
Imagine you're at the doctor's office. You've pre-loaded a secured Gemini instance with your existing healthcare data, and as your doctor reviews your records, Gemini does the same. It prompts you and the doctor to consider other possibilities - maybe that weird tingling sensation in your foot isn't your imagination after all, and then a rank-ordered list of questions for you and your doctor to explore.
These scenarios may seem futuristic, but the technology to implement them is in market today. It's not theoretical. It's not sci-fi. It's available to you right now, here, today.
Our job is to build it, to harness those powers.
In the next 6-12 months, the arms race among the big vendors will rage on, but for the rest of us, the race to use AI to create value is where the action really is.
Part 4: Your Next Steps to the Future
So all this is great. What do we do with it? What are the practical takeaways?
If you're concerned about job loss, the time to learn AI is now. No matter what you're currently doing with it, you could be doing more. I could be doing more. There's so much possibility. So the first place you start is with a task and skills audit - for yourself, for your team, for your company. Shameless plug, my company, Trust Insights, does this. My business partner Katie is the absolute best at helping organizations understand their capabilities and deficits.
Second, once you've done your audit and you know where your weak spots are, you practice. You roll up your sleeves, dust off your keyboard, and sit down with the AI model of your choice to see how you could use AI to implement tasks within your weak areas and blind spots. Maybe you're comfortable doing writing with generative AI, but not doing strategy and planning. Maybe you're comfortable writing ad copy but not creating code. Whatever the blind spots are, use AI to mitigate them.
Third, you focus on the three MOST BESTS that I talk about in my keynotes. Whoever has the most best ideas, data, and brand will win in the AI era. You need to build your ideation muscles to figure out what's possible and what's profitable in your industry that AI can build for you.
You need to find all your data, public and private, put it into formats AI can recognize, and then start extracting real value from that data.
And finally, you need a strong brand, because in the era when we don't need to ask search engines or social media for answers, the only way you'll ever get recommended is if AI knows who you are. That comes from having a big, bold brand that shows up in training data and then in AI models.
If you do this, if you follow this process, you'll be better positioned than 99% of your peers who have no idea what's coming for them. The prospects for AI-resistant people are very, very dim. The prospects for AI-forward people are very, very bright. As a technology, it amplifies what's already there. To paraphrase from the Captain America movie, it takes the good and makes it better, and it takes the bad and makes it worse.
If you're good at what you do, it will make you better.
Get started today.
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Almost Timely News: 🗞️ A Semi-Technical Deep Dive into AI Language Models (2025-01-12)
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Christopher S. Penn
Recently you wrote a shameless pitch about AI prompts. A 2-hour class for about $250 or so. I can't find the link and the email. Can somebody please help?
You continue to do excellent work, thank you.